Monday, February 4, 2013

Argentine Inflation = Hot Money

Nothing like pegging your currency to a nation with very low inflation...like the US for example.

http://modernmoney.wordpress.com/2011/01/31/argentina-inflation-due-to-pegged%C2%A0currency/

and that leads to......

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-04/argentina-freezes-supermarket-prices-halt-soaring-inflation-chaos-follow


Debt to GDP


Interesting article about historical growth rates for nations based on size (market cycle) and Debt/GDP ratios, and inflationary averages.

GROWTH IN A TIME OF DEBT
http://www.nber.org/papers/w15639.pdf?new_window=1
by
Carmen M. Reinhart
Kenneth S. Rogoff


Notes"
http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/mfh.txt

MAJOR FOREIGN HOLDERS OF TREASURY SECURITIES (does not include private investors)
FHDebt/GDP Ratio grew 7.5% YoY to 40.49% in October of 2012




http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np
DEBT HELD BY THE PUBLIC
PDebt/GDP Ratio grew 7.7% YoY to 82.8% in October 2012

With the contraction in 4Q 2012 of .1%, and a slight underestimation of the deflator, it's likely PH/GDP is above 85%.  
If CPI is allowed substituted for the deflator it's quite likely the ratio is over 90% on 1/1/2013, we'll just have to wait on the releases to find out.