8.1% Unemployment My Hinny

Another perfectly honest chart from a wonderful, all caring government is once again telling us the unemployment rate is getting better, if only that were true.  


(Civilian Unemployment Rate)



Of course, this chart is is also showing a decline.
(if you need a refresher: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Employment-to-population_ratio)

(Civilian Employment-Population Ratio-10yrs)



And as a historical perspective...

(Civilian Employment-Population Ratio-50+yrs)


Amazingly one can notice women entering the workforce, the recessions of the 70's impact on workers, and the fact that people are not going back to work presently.  Virtually every time they BLS reports a decline in the unemployment rate (at least lately) the EPR (Employment-Population Ratio) drops also (which is bassackwards of how it should be).  I made a little chart postulating that 62.7 EPR correlates to 5% unemployment, this seems to be the present interpretation of full employment.  Funny enough, when unemployment was 5%, 4% was still considered full employment and so I don't squabble much with the powers that be on this point.

(62.7/EPR+5%)-1 compared to the unemployment rate/100



Conclusion:  I calculate the unemployment rate to be 12% based on the norms of the past 35 years, the BLS obviously does not agree.

Do the math yourself, if I'm wrong I'd love to know why....